Riding profile
MS-1
The question
MS-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMS-1 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +19.4 | 54.3% −18.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MS-1, a mixed riding in MS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
KELLY, JOHN TRENT
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Kelly, John Trent
-
Democrat Challenger Buck, Kelvin Oneal Mr
- Democrat Challenger
Johnson, Cliff
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026