Riding profile
MS-1
The question
MS-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Editorial read
MS-1, a mixed riding in MS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
KELLY, JOHN TRENT
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Kelly, John Trent
-
Democrat Challenger Buck, Kelvin Oneal Mr
- Democrat Challenger
Johnson, Cliff
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 33.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMS-1 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +20.3 | 51.9% −18.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026