Riding profile

MS-4

US House district — MS · Mixed · us ms

The question

MS-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MS-4, a mixed riding in MS, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 71% vote share, against 29% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

EZELL, WALTER MICHAEL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Ezell, Walter Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Hulum, Jeffrey III

  • Other Challenger

    Carl, Boyanton Lester

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
41.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 70.9%
  • Democrat 29.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMS-4 70.9%29.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +24.3 51.9% −22.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
47.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026