Riding profile

RI-2

US House district — RI · Mixed · us ri

The question

RI-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

RI-2, a mixed riding in RI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MAGAZINER, SETH

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Magaziner, Seth

  • Republican Challenger

    Mellor, Victor G.

  • Republican Challenger

    Skoly, Stephen T

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.3%
  • Republican 38.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereRI-2 61.3%38.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +9.5 46.6% −8.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
16.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026