Rhode Island’s 1st District

U.S. House · RI-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 67.3%

Gabe Amo
Republican 29.1%

Kellie Keenan
Other 3.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	> 99%
50/50 blend	Democrat	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
RI-1	67.3%	29.1%	3.6%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+12.4	43.9%−14.7	1.2%+2.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Emerson College WPRI-TV	8–Oct 11, 2026	394	likely voters	Gabe Amo (D) 54 Kellie Keenan (R) 26 Pedro DeSouza (Ind.) 6	See the poll
Embold Research Salve Regina University Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy	5–Oct 8, 2026	—	likely voters	Gabe Amo (D) 52 Kellie Keenan (R) 33 Pedro DeSouza (Ind.) 4	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	13.3% (± 0.6)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Gabe Amo · Democrat

Primary results

Held September 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Gabe Amo	100.0%	56,255 votes
Republican primary	Kellie Keenan	100.0%	7,155 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Gabe Amo

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Desouza, Pedro

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Kellie Keenan
source
Democrat Open seat

Gabe Amo
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 31.0 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 38.2 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

RI-2 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026