Riding profile

NY-11

US House district — NY · Mixed · us ny

The question

NY-11: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NY-11, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MALLIOTAKIS, NICOLE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Malliotakis, Nicole

  • Democrat Challenger

    Decillis, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mcghie, Troy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ziogas, Allison

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.6%
  • Democrat 37.8%
  • Other 7.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereNY-11 54.6%37.8%7.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.0 51.9% −14.1 5.4% +2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
21.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026