New York’s 11th District
U.S. House · NY-11
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 16%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 79% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 94% |
| Orbit | Republican | 79% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 87% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY-11 | 51.8% | 40.2% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.0%+7.8 | 54.7%−14.4 | 1.3%+6.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 15.5% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
Nicole Malliotakis · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Mike DeCillis | 62.0% | 10,001 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Nicole Malliotakis | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 21.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated