Winner
Mike DeCillis 62.0%
Riding profile
NY-11
The question
NY-11: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereNY-11 | 51.5% | 40.1% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +6.6 | 54.3% −14.2 | 5.1% +3.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
NY-11, a mixed riding in NY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
MALLIOTAKIS, NICOLE
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 23, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Decillis, Michael
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026