Winner
Gary Palmer 87.0%
Riding profile
AL-6
The question
AL-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAL-6 | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +16.9 | 54.3% −16.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
AL-6, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
PALMER, GARY
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 11, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Palmer, Gary
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026