Riding profile

AL-3

US House district — AL · Mixed · us al

The question

AL-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AL-3, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 96-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ROGERS, MICHAEL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Rogers, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mcinnis, Victor Lee

  • Republican Challenger

    Lapoint, Terri

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 70.2%
  • Democrat 29.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAL-3 70.2%29.8%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +23.5 51.9% −22.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
95.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-55.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026