Riding profile
AL-2
The question
AL-2: will Democrat lose this seat to Republican?
Editorial read
AL-2, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
FIGURES, SHOMARI C.
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Figures, Shomari C.
-
Republican Challenger Harris, Hampton
- Republican Open seat
Marques, Rhett
- Republican Open seat
Mckee, Joshua Logan
- Republican Open seat
Richardson, James
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.4
- P(close race)
- 19%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAL-2 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +6.6 | 51.9% −5.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research DCCC | 22–Jun 25 | 400 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 2
(01002)58% - Congressional District 1
(01001)31% - Congressional District 7
(01007)7%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026