Riding profile

AL-2

US House district — AL · Mixed · us al

The question

AL-2: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
2.1
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.0%
  • Democrat 49.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAL-2 51.0%49.0%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +6.1 54.3% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Tulchin Research House Majority PAC 24–Aug 31 — LV
Democrat 47 Republican 47
link
Dccc Targeting Team 29–Jul 30 421 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 46
link
Impact Research DCCC 22–Jun 25 400 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

AL-2, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

FIGURES, SHOMARI C.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Figures, Shomari C.

  • Republican Challenger

    Harris, Hampton

  • Republican Challenger

    Matthews, David

  • Republican Open seat

    Marques, Rhett

  • Republican Open seat

    Mckee, Joshua Logan

  • Republican Open seat

    Richardson, James

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
26.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.3 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 2 (01002) 58%
  • Congressional District 1 (01001) 31%
  • Congressional District 7 (01007) 7%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026