Alabama’s 2nd District

U.S. House · AL-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 62% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.3%

Rhett Marques
Democrat 48.8%

Shomari Figures, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 58% chance (62% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	62%
Orbit	Republican	58%
50/50 blend	Republican	60%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
AL-2	51.3%	48.8%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+7.4	54.9%−6.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Remington Scenario 1	23–Oct 25, 2026	642	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 46	See the poll
Remington Scenario 2	23–Oct 25, 2026	642	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 44	See the poll
Tulchin Research House Majority PAC	24–Aug 31, 2026	—	likely voters	Rhett Marques (R) 47 Shomari Figures (D) 47	See the poll
Dccc Targeting Team	29–Jul 30, 2026	421	likely voters	Rhett Marques (R) 46 Shomari Figures (D) 46	See the poll
Impact Research DCCC	22–Jun 25, 2026	400	likely voters	Rhett Marques (R) 45 Shomari Figures (D) 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Figures, Shomari C. · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Shomari Figures
source
Republican Challenger

Rhett Marques
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 26.5 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.8 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 2 58%
Former district 1 31%
Former district 7 7%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

AL-6 Republican, safe seat
AL-7 Democrat, safe seat
AL-3 Republican, safe seat
AL-1 Republican, safe seat
AL-4 Republican, safe seat
AL-5 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026