Riding profile
AL-7
The question
AL-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAL-7 | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +10.1 | 44.9% −9.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
AL-7, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
SEWELL, TERRI A.
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Sewell, Terri A.
-
Republican Challenger Akin, Ammie
- Republican Challenger
Murphy, Morgan W. W.
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 7
(01007)74% - Congressional District 2
(01002)26%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026