Winner
Andrew Sneed 78.4%
Riding profile
AL-5
The question
AL-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAL-5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +14.1 | 54.3% −13.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
AL-5, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 91-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
STRONG, DALE WHITNEY
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Jun 16, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Sneed, Andrew Rankin Guyton
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026