Riding profile

AL-5

US House district — AL · Mixed · us al

The question

AL-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AL-5, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 91-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STRONG, DALE WHITNEY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Strong, Dale Whitney

  • Democrat Challenger

    Devito, Jeremy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Duvieilh, Candice

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sneed, Andrew Rankin Guyton

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.7%
  • Democrat 38.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAL-5 61.7%38.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.0 51.9% −13.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
90.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-67.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026