Alabama’s 5th District
U.S. House · AL-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 90% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 98% |
| Orbit | Republican | 90% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 94% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AL-5 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+15.0 | 54.9%−13.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.8% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Dale Strong · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Andrew Sneed | 78.4% | 16,688 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Dale Strong | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 90.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 17.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated