Alabama’s 1st District
U.S. House · AL-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 96% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 96% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AL-1 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+18.3 | 54.9%−17.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Moore, Felix Barry · Republican
Primary results
| Republican primary | Jerry Carl | 74.7% | 23,338 votes |
|---|
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 52.4 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 24.3 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 1 91%
- Former district 2 9%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated