Winner
Jerry Carl 74.7%
Riding profile
AL-1
The question
AL-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 24.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAL-1 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +17.4 | 54.3% −16.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
AL-1, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 52-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
MOORE, FELIX BARRY
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 11, 2026 · Certified official result
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Open seat
Carl, Jerry Lee, Jr
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 1
(01001)91% - Congressional District 2
(01002)9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026