Winner
Amanda N. Pusczek 62.8%
Riding profile
AL-4
The question
AL-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 53.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAL-4 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +31.9 | 54.3% −31.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
AL-4, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 97-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 77% vote share, against 23% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
ADERHOLT, ROBERT B. REP.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Robert B. Aderholt 77.6%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Aderholt, Robert B. Rep.
-
Democrat Challenger Pusczek, Amanda Noelle
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026