Alabama’s 4th District
U.S. House · AL-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 53.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AL-4 | 76.6% | 23.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+32.7 | 54.9%−31.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.6% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Robert B. Aderholt · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Amanda N. Pusczek | 62.8% | 9,648 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Robert B. Aderholt | 77.6% | 72,169 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 97.5 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 53.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated