Riding profile

AL-4

US House district — AL · Mixed · us al

The question

AL-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AL-4, a mixed riding in AL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 97-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 79% vote share, against 21% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ADERHOLT, ROBERT B. REP.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Aderholt, Robert B. Rep.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pusczek, Amanda Noelle

  • Democrat Challenger

    Weaver, Michael Shane

  • Republican Challenger

    Barnes, Thomas Gary

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
58.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 79.3%
  • Democrat 20.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAL-4 79.3%20.7%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +32.7 51.9% −31.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
97.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-38.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026