Riding profile

GA-12

US House district — GA · Mixed · us ga

The question

GA-12: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.2
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.1%

    Richard W Allen incumbent

  • Democrat 44.9%

    Ceretta Smith

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereGA-12 55.1%44.9%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +10.2 54.3% −9.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

GA-12, a mixed riding in GA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ALLEN, RICHARD W

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 16, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Ceretta Smith 55.8%

16,823 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Rick W. Allen (I) 83.4%

59,576 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Allen, Richard W

  • Democrat Challenger

    Smith, Ceretta

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
20.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026