Georgia’s 12th District
U.S. House · GA-12
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 22%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 73% chance (92% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 92% |
| Orbit | Republican | 73% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 83% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| GA-12 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.1 | 54.9%−9.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.1% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Rick W. Allen · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Ceretta Smith | 55.8% | 16,823 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Rick W. Allen | 83.4% | 59,576 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 20.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated