Georgia’s 1st District
U.S. House · GA-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 81% chance (73% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 73% |
| Orbit | Republican | 81% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 77% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| GA-1 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+8.3 | 54.9%−7.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 5.6% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Carter, Earl Leroy · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Amanda Hollowell | 53.0% | 12,618 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | James "Jim" Kingston | 52.4% | 37,025 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 24.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated