Riding profile

ME-2

US House district — ME · Mixed · us me

The question

ME-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.2
P(close race)
17%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.8%
  • Republican 46.6%
  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereME-2 52.8%46.6%0.6%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −1.5 44.9% +1.7 5.1% −4.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

16 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Impact Research House Majority PAC 8–Sep 12 500 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 49
link
Impact Research House Majority PAC 8–Sep 12 500 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 45
link
Tulchin Research 11–Jul 16 600 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 48
link
Pan Atlantic Sms Group 8–May 18 418 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 41
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 26–Apr 28 918 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 40
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 26–Apr 28 918 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 40
link
Co/Efficient NRCC 26–Apr 28 918 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 41
link
Upswing Research 24–Feb 27 403 LV
Republican 52 Democrat 45
link
University Of New Hampshire 12–Feb 16 520 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 44
link
University Of New Hampshire 12–Feb 16 520 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 46
link
University Of New Hampshire 12–Feb 16 520 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 47
link
Pan Atlantic Sms Group Nov 29 – Dec 7 387 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 43
link
University Of New Hampshire 16–Oct 21 521 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 44
link
University Of New Hampshire 19–Jun 23 394 Adults
Republican 50 Democrat 47
link
Mellman Group 4–Jun 10 400 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 43
link
Ragnar Research Partners Congressional Leadership Fund 13–Apr 15 400 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 43
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

ME-2, a mixed riding in ME, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

GOLDEN, JARED

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Golden, Jared

  • Democrat Open seat

    Baldacci, Joseph

  • Democrat Open seat

    Dunlap, Matt

  • Democrat Open seat

    Loud, Paige

  • Democrat Open seat

    Wood, Jordan

  • Republican Open seat

    Lepage, Paul

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
0.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026