Riding profile

ME-1

US House district — ME · Mixed · us me

The question

ME-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

ME-1, a mixed riding in ME, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

PINGREE, CHELLIE M

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Ronald C. Russell 24%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll May 25, 2026 · byuniversity_of_new_hampshire

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Pingree, Chellie M

  • Democrat Challenger

    Roberts, Tiffany Danielle

  • Republican Challenger

    Pietrowicz, Joshua James

  • Republican Challenger

    Russell, Ronald Charles Mr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Small, Eric

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.3%
  • Republican 33.3%
  • Other 5.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereME-1 61.3%33.3%5.5%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +9.4 46.6% −13.4 5.4%

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
21.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026