Maine’s 1st District

U.S. House · ME-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 64.8%

Chellie Pingree, incumbent
Republican 32.0%

Ronald Russell
Other 3.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	> 99%
50/50 blend	Democrat	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
ME-1	64.8%	32.0%	3.3%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+9.9	43.9%−11.9	1.2%+2.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	839	likely voters	Democrat 65 Republican 32	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	657	likely voters	Chellie Pingree (D) 57 Ronald Russell (R) 35	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	1.8% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Chellie Pingree · Democrat

Primary results

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Chellie Pingree	100.0%	128,257 votes
Republican primary	Ronald Russell	53.5%	27,059 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Chellie Pingree
source
Republican Challenger

Ronald Russell
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 21.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 32.8 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

ME-2 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026