Riding profile

ME-1

US House district — ME · Mixed · us me

The question

ME-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 63.7%
  • Republican 30.2%
  • Other 6.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereME-1 63.7%30.2%6.1%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +9.3 44.9% −14.7 5.1% +1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

ME-1, a mixed riding in ME, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

PINGREE, CHELLIE M

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Pingree, Chellie M

  • Democrat Challenger

    Roberts, Tiffany Danielle

  • Republican Challenger

    Pietrowicz, Joshua James

  • Republican Challenger

    Russell, Ronald Charles Mr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Small, Eric

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
21.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026