Riding profile
VT-AL
The question
VT-AL: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 38.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Other | Republican | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereVT-AL | 64.7% | 26.3% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +10.3 | 5.1% +21.2 | 44.9% −35.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University Of New Hampshire | 15–Jul 20 | 949 | LV | link | |
| University Of New Hampshire | 15–Jul 20 | 948 | LV | link | |
| University Of New Hampshire | 18–Jun 23 | 871 | LV | link | |
| University Of New Hampshire | 18–Jun 23 | 872 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
VT-AL, a mixed riding in VT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 26% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
BALINT, REBECCA 'BECCA'
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Balint, Rebecca 'Becca'
-
Republican Challenger Coester, C. Mark Mr
- Republican Challenger
Malloy, Gerald Mr.
Previous election · 2024
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026