Riding profile

VT-AL

US House district — VT · Mixed · us vt

The question

VT-AL: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

VT-AL, a mixed riding in VT, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BALINT, REBECCA 'BECCA'

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Balint, Rebecca 'Becca'

  • Republican Challenger

    Coester, C. Mark Mr

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.0%
  • Other 38.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Other Republican
HereVT-AL 62.0%38.0%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +10.1 5.4% +32.6 46.6% −46.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
17.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026