Vermont — at-large district

U.S. House · VT-AL

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 39.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 69.0%

Becca Balint, incumbent
Republican 29.8%

Gerald Malloy
Other 1.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	> 99%
50/50 blend	Democrat	> 99%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
VT-AL	69.0%	29.8%	1.2%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+14.1	43.9%−14.0	1.2%

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 7 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	830	likely voters	Becca Balint (D) 66 Gerald Malloy (R) 30 Suzanne Seymour (Ind.) 1	See the poll
Braun Research Vermont Public Radio Scenario 1	10–Sep 21, 2026	732	likely voters	Becca Balint (D) 47 Gerald Malloy (R) 30 Suzanne Seymour (Ind.) 2 Adam Ortiz (Ind.) 1 Ryan Walton (Ind.) 1 Phoenix Altair (Ind.) 0	See the poll
Braun Research Vermont Public Radio Scenario 2	10–Sep 21, 2026	817	adults	Becca Balint (D) 43 Gerald Malloy (R) 28 Suzanne Seymour (Ind.) 2 Adam Ortiz (Ind.) 2 Ryan Walton (Ind.) 1 Phoenix Altair (Ind.) 0	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire Scenario 1	15–Jul 20, 2026	949	likely voters	Becca Balint (D) 63 Gerald Malloy (R) 25 Adam Ortiz (Ind.) 2	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire Scenario 2	15–Jul 20, 2026	948	likely voters	Becca Balint (D) 64 Mark Coester (R) 25 Adam Ortiz (Ind.) 2	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire Scenario 1	18–Jun 23, 2026	871	likely voters	Becca Balint (D) 57 Mark Coester (R) 26 Adam Ortiz (Ind.) 1	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire Scenario 2	18–Jun 23, 2026	872	likely voters	Becca Balint (D) 57 Gerald Malloy (R) 26 Adam Ortiz (Ind.) 1	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.2% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Becca Balint · Democrat

Primary results

Held August 11, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Becca Balint	98.4%	79,679 votes
Republican primary	Gerald Malloy	76.3%	15,662 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Becca Balint
source
Republican Challenger

Gerald Malloy
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 17.1 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 39.1 points.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026