Riding profile

MN-6

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.2%

    Thomas Earl Jr. Emmer incumbent

  • Democrat 42.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMN-6 57.2%42.8%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +12.3 54.3% −11.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MN-6, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

EMMER, THOMAS EARL JR.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 11, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Doug Chapin 100.0%

48,394 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Tom Emmer 80.9%

53,087 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Emmer, Thomas Earl Jr.

  • Other Challenger

    Chapin, Doug

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026