Riding profile

MN-6

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MN-6, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

EMMER, THOMAS EARL JR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Emmer, Thomas Earl Jr.

  • Other Challenger

    Chapin, Doug

  • Republican Challenger

    Foley, Michael

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.9%
  • Democrat 40.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMN-6 59.9%40.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +13.2 51.9% −11.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
25.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026