Riding profile

MN-3

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-3: will Other lose this seat to Democrat?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.2%
  • Republican 35.8%

    Tyler Bass

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereMN-3 64.2%35.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +9.9 44.9% −9.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MN-3, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 64% vote share, against 36% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MORRISON, KELLY LOUISE

Sits with Other

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 11, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Kelly Morrison 100.0%

86,217 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Tyler Bass 55.4%

22,589 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Incumbent

    Morrison, Kelly Louise

  • Republican Open seat

    Tyler Bass

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
17.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026