Riding profile

MN-3

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-3: will Other lose this seat to Democrat?

Editorial read

MN-3, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MORRISON, KELLY LOUISE

Sits with Other

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Incumbent

    Morrison, Kelly Louise

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.4%
  • Republican 38.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereMN-3 61.4%38.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +9.6 46.6% −8.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
17.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026