Riding profile

MN-5

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-5: will Other lose this seat to Democrat?

Editorial read

MN-5, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 78% vote share, against 22% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

OMAR, ILHAN

Sits with Other

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Incumbent

    Omar, Ilhan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Reeves, Latonya T

  • Republican Challenger

    Al-Aqidi, Dalia

  • Republican Challenger

    Nagel, John

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
55.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 77.6%
  • Republican 22.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereMN-5 77.6%22.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +25.7 46.6% −24.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
49.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026