Minnesota’s 5th District
U.S. House · MN-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 60.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| MN-5 | 80.5% | 19.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+25.6 | 43.9%−24.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 6.3% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Ilhan Omar · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Ilhan Omar | 80.7% | 122,640 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | John Nagel | 52.2% | 7,777 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 49.8 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 60.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated