Winner
Ilhan Omar 80.7%
Riding profile
MN-5
The question
MN-5: will Other lose this seat to Democrat?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 60.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMN-5 | 80.5% | 19.5% | 0.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +26.1 | 44.9% −25.4 | 5.1% −5.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
MN-5, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 50-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 80% vote share, against 20% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
OMAR, ILHAN
Sits with Other
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 11, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
John Nagel 52.2%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Incumbent
Omar, Ilhan
-
Republican Challenger Nagel, John
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026