Minnesota’s 8th District
U.S. House · MN-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 40%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 62% chance (78% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 78% |
| Orbit | Republican | 62% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 70% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| MN-8 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+8.9 | 54.9%−7.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll, 2 scenarios
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.5% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Pete Stauber · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Trina Swanson | 77.2% | 54,413 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Pete Stauber | 86.4% | 58,139 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 16.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated