Riding profile

MN-8

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MN-8, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STAUBER, PETER ALLEN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Stauber, Peter Allen

  • Other Challenger

    Anastos, Emanuel

  • Other Challenger

    Mckenna, Chad

  • Other Challenger

    Swanson, Trina

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.5%
  • Democrat 44.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMN-8 55.5%44.5%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.9 51.9% −7.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
16.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026