Riding profile

MN-8

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-8: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
35%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.9%

    Peter Allen Stauber incumbent

  • Democrat 47.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMN-8 52.9%47.1%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +7.9 54.3% −7.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MN-8, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

STAUBER, PETER ALLEN

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 11, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Trina Swanson 77.2%

54,413 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Pete Stauber 86.4%

58,139 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Stauber, Peter Allen

  • Other Challenger

    Anastos, Emanuel

  • Other Challenger

    Mckenna, Chad

  • Other Challenger

    Swanson, Trina

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
16.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026