Riding profile

MN-4

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 72.8%

    Betty McCollum incumbent

  • Republican 27.2%

    Paul Wikstrom

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereMN-4 72.8%27.2%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +18.5 44.9% −17.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MN-4, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 27% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCCOLLUM, BETTY

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 11, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Betty McCollum 85.8%

95,811 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Paul Wikstrom 72.6%

20,628 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mccollum, Betty

  • Republican Challenger

    Wikstrom, Paul

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
34.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026