Winner
Matt Little 47.2%
Riding profile
MN-2
The question
MN-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMN-2 | 59.7% | 39.8% | 0.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +5.4 | 44.9% −5.2 | 5.1% −4.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling | 18–Jun 21 | 415 | LV | link | |
| Harper Polling | 18–Jun 21 | 415 | LV | link | |
| Harper Polling | 18–Jun 21 | 415 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
MN-2, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
CRAIG, ANGELA DAWN
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 11, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Eric Pratt 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Open seat
Little, Matt
-
Republican Open seat Pratt, Eric
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026