Riding profile

MN-2

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

MN-2, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CRAIG, ANGELA DAWN

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Matt Little 26%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 1, 2026 · bygqr

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Craig, Angela Dawn

  • Republican Challenger

    Westby, Jeremy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Klein, Matthew David

  • Other Open seat

    Berg, Kaela Jo

  • Other Open seat

    Little, Matt

  • Other Open seat

    Mctavish, Hugh

  • Republican Open seat

    Kistner, Tyler

  • Republican Open seat

    Pratt, Eric

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.1%
  • Republican 40.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMN-2 59.1%40.8%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +7.2 46.6% −5.8 5.4% −5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
13.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026