Minnesota’s 2nd District

U.S. House · MN-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 57.4%

Matt Little
Republican 42.6%

Eric Pratt

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 96% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	98%
Orbit	Democrat	96%
50/50 blend	Democrat	97%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
MN-2	57.4%	42.6%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+2.5	43.9%−1.3	1.2%−1.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Impact Research	9–Sep 13, 2026	500	likely voters	Matt Little (D) 52 Eric Pratt (R) 40	See the poll
Harper Polling Scenario 1	18–Jun 21, 2026	415	likely voters	Kaela Berg (D) 43 Eric Pratt (R) 43	See the poll
Harper Polling Scenario 2	18–Jun 21, 2026	415	likely voters	Matt Klein (D) 43 Eric Pratt (R) 42	See the poll
Harper Polling Scenario 3	18–Jun 21, 2026	415	likely voters	Matt Little (D) 45 Eric Pratt (R) 40	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	5.0% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Craig, Angela Dawn · Democrat

Primary results

Held August 11, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Matt Little	47.2%	41,792 votes
Republican primary	Eric Pratt	100.0%	43,813 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Matt Little
source
Republican Open seat

Eric Pratt
source

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 13.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 15.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MN-5 Democrat, safe seat
MN-1 Republican, toss-up
MN-3 Democrat, safe seat
MN-4 Democrat, safe seat
MN-6 Republican, safe seat
MN-7 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026