Riding profile

MN-7

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-7: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MN-7, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FISCHBACH, MICHELLE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fischbach, Michelle

  • Other Challenger

    Keeler, Heather

  • Other Challenger

    Osberg, Erik

  • Republican Challenger

    Hughes, Dave

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 67.6%
  • Democrat 32.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMN-7 67.6%32.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +20.9 51.9% −19.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
41.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026