Riding profile

MN-7

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-7: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.0%

    Michelle Fischbach incumbent

  • Democrat 35.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMN-7 65.0%35.0%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +20.1 54.3% −19.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MN-7, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FISCHBACH, MICHELLE

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 11, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Erik Osberg 65.7%

27,758 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Michelle Fischbach 100.0%

69,436 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fischbach, Michelle

  • Other Challenger

    Keeler, Heather

  • Other Challenger

    Osberg, Erik

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
41.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026