Winner
Jake Johnson 81.7%
Riding profile
MN-1
The question
MN-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.8
- P(close race)
- 19%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereMN-1 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +8.4 | 54.3% −7.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
3 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 12–Mar 14 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 12–Mar 14 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 2–Feb 3 | 708 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
MN-1, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
FINSTAD, BRAD
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 11, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Brad Finstad 90.1%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Finstad, Brad
- Other Challenger
Johnson, Jacob
-
Democrat Open seat Jake Johnson
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026