Minnesota’s 1st District

U.S. House · MN-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 69% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.7%

Brad Finstad, incumbent
Democrat 48.3%

Jake Johnson

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 64% chance (69% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	69%
Orbit	Republican	64%
50/50 blend	Republican	67%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
MN-1	51.7%	48.3%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+7.9	54.9%−6.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls, 6 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	13–Oct 14, 2026	—	likely voters	Brad Finstad (R) 43 Jake Johnson (D) 43	See the poll
Surveyusa ABC6	4–Oct 12, 2026	565	likely voters	Jake Johnson (D) 46 Brad Finstad (R) 44	See the poll
Gbao House Majority PAC	18–Sep 21, 2026	500	likely voters	Jake Johnson (D) 47 Brad Finstad (R) 46	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	12–Mar 14, 2026	400	likely voters	Brad Finstad (R) 52 Jake Johnson (D) 42	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	12–Mar 14, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 45 Generic Democrat (D) 40	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	2–Feb 3, 2026	708	registered voters	Brad Finstad (R) 44 Jake Johnson (D) 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.5% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Brad Finstad · Republican

Primary results

Held August 11, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jake Johnson	81.7%	47,255 votes
Republican primary	Brad Finstad	90.1%	50,523 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Brad Finstad
source
Democrat Challenger

Jake Johnson

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Open seat

Jake Johnson
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 17.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.4 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MN-2 Democrat, safe seat
MN-5 Democrat, safe seat
MN-4 Democrat, safe seat
MN-3 Democrat, safe seat
MN-6 Republican, safe seat
MN-7 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026