Riding profile

MN-1

US House district — MN · Mixed · us mn

The question

MN-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MN-1, a mixed riding in MN, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FINSTAD, BRAD

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Finstad, Brad

  • Other Challenger

    Eaton, Alex

  • Other Challenger

    Johnson, Jacob

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.1%
  • Democrat 44.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMN-1 55.1%44.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.4 51.9% −6.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 12–Mar 14 400 LV
Republican 52 Democrat 42
link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 12–Mar 14 400 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 40
link
Public Policy Polling 2–Feb 3 708 RV
Republican 44 Democrat 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
17.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026