Riding profile

HI-1

US House district — HI · Mixed · us hi

The question

HI-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

HI-1, a mixed riding in HI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 24% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CASE, EDWARD

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Ed Case 44%

9 candidates polled · Latest poll Oct 14, 2025 · bydata_for_progress

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Case, Edward

  • Democrat Challenger

    Belatti, Della Au

  • Democrat Challenger

    Keohokalole, Jarrett

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 69.7%
  • Republican 23.8%
  • Other 6.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereHI-1 69.7%23.8%6.6%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +17.8 46.6% −22.9 5.4% +1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
39.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026