Riding profile

HI-1

US House district — HI · Mixed · us hi

The question

HI-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 72.1%
  • Republican 20.7%
  • Other 7.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereHI-1 72.1%20.7%7.2%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +17.7 44.9% −24.2 5.1% +2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

HI-1, a mixed riding in HI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 72% vote share, against 21% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CASE, EDWARD

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Case, Edward

  • Democrat Challenger

    Belatti, Della Au

  • Democrat Challenger

    Keohokalole, Jarrett

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
39.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026