Riding profile

HI-2

US House district — HI · Mixed · us hi

The question

HI-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

HI-2, a mixed riding in HI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 66% vote share, against 26% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TOKUDA, JILL NAOMI

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Tokuda, Jill Naomi

  • Republican Challenger

    Awa, Brenton

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 65.8%
  • Republican 26.0%
  • Other 8.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereHI-2 65.8%26.0%8.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +13.9 46.6% −20.6 5.4% +2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
33.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026