Riding profile

HI-2

US House district — HI · Mixed · us hi

The question

HI-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 68.2%
  • Republican 22.9%
  • Other 8.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereHI-2 68.2%22.9%8.9%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +13.9 44.9% −22.0 5.1% +3.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

HI-2, a mixed riding in HI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 68% vote share, against 23% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TOKUDA, JILL NAOMI

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Tokuda, Jill Naomi

  • Republican Challenger

    Awa, Brenton

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
33.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026