Riding profile

NV-2

US House district — NV · Mixed · us nv

The question

NV-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.7%
  • Other 25.6%
  • Democrat 23.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Other Democrat
HereNV-2 50.7%25.6%23.7%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +5.8 5.1% +20.5 54.3% −30.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Gbao Nevada Alliance Aug 31 – Sep 3 500 LV
Democrat 38 Republican 37
link
Strategies 360 22–Aug 26 400 LV
Republican 45 Democrat 42
link
Wedgewood Polls 9–Jul 12 350 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

NV-2, a mixed riding in NV, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 26% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

AMODEI, MARK EUGENE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Amodei, Mark Eugene

  • Republican Challenger

    Flippo, David

  • Democrat Open seat

    Benitez-Thompson, Teresa

  • Democrat Open seat

    Durham, Kathy L

  • Democrat Open seat

    Fonken, Matthew William

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hebert, Joshua Russell Dr.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Kidd, Greg

  • Democrat Open seat

    Wadsworth, Morgan Leigh

  • Republican Open seat

    Forbush, George

  • Republican Open seat

    Settelmeyer, James Arnold

  • Republican Open seat

    Smith, Mike

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
10.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026