Nevada’s 2nd District

U.S. House · NV-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 65% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.9 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.5%

David Flippo
Democrat 48.5%

Teresa Benitez-Thompson

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (65% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	65%
Orbit	Republican	99%
50/50 blend	Republican	82%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NV-2	51.5%	48.5%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+7.6	54.9%−6.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	12–Oct 13, 2026	—	likely voters	David Flippo (R) 46 Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 44	See the poll
Gbao Nevada Alliance	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026	500	likely voters	Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 38 David Flippo (R) 37 Lynn Chapman (IAP) 14	See the poll
Strategies 360	22–Aug 26, 2026	400	likely voters	David Flippo (R) 45 Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 42 Lynn Chapman (IAP) 7	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	16.8% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Amodei, Mark Eugene · Republican

Primary results

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Teresa Benitez-Thompson	45.6%	23,706 votes
Republican primary	David Flippo	46.9%	38,174 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Challenger

David Flippo
source
Democrat Open seat

Teresa Benitez-Thompson
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 10.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.9 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NV-4 Democrat, safe seat
NV-1 Democrat, safe seat
NV-3 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026