Riding profile

NV-3

US House district — NV · Mixed · us nv

The question

NV-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.6%
  • Republican 42.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereNV-3 57.6%42.4%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +3.3 44.9% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NV-3, a mixed riding in NV, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LEE, SUSIE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Lee, Susie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lally, James Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Robinson, Terrill

  • Republican Challenger

    Anderson, Tera

  • Republican Challenger

    Brandlin, Christopher Paul

  • Republican Challenger

    Dominguez, Lydia

  • Republican Challenger

    Gunter, Jeff Dr.

  • Republican Challenger

    Kennedy, Ronda

  • Republican Challenger

    London, Steven

  • Republican Challenger

    Nagy, Aury

  • Republican Challenger

    O'Donnell, Marty

  • Republican Challenger

    Walters, Joshua

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026