Riding profile

NV-4

US House district — NV · Mixed · us nv

The question

NV-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.7%
  • Republican 39.3%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNV-4 59.7%39.3%1.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +5.4 44.9% −5.6 5.1% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NV-4, a mixed riding in NV, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HORSFORD, STEVEN ALEXZANDER

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Horsford, Steven Alexzander

  • Republican Challenger

    Kennedy, Ronda

  • Republican Challenger

    Whipple, Cody K

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
8.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026