Riding profile

NV-4

US House district — NV · Mixed · us nv

The question

NV-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

NV-4, a mixed riding in NV, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HORSFORD, STEVEN ALEXZANDER

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Horsford, Steven Alexzander

  • Republican Challenger

    Kennedy, Ronda

  • Republican Challenger

    Whipple, Cody K

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.3%
  • Republican 42.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereNV-4 57.3%42.4%0.3%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +5.4 46.6% −4.3 5.4% −5.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
8.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026