Who else forecasts the 2026 House, and where do they stand?

Chance that Democrats control it, side by side

Each bar is one forecaster’s published probability. The dotted line is 50%.

• Vote-Scope (ours) 97.8%
• Kalshi 97.0%
• The Economist 96.7%
• Polymarket 94.5%
• Silver Bulletin (FLIPR) 94.0%
• ElectIndex 90.0%
• Decision Desk HQ 79.0%

How solid the races are

Races sorted from solid Democratic to solid Republican. Ours in seven levels; expert ratings as published.

• Solid D
• Likely D
• Lean D
• Toss-up
• Lean R
• Likely R
• Solid R

• Vote-Scope (ours) 435 races · as of November 2, 2026 203 28 47 115
• Vote-Scope, common scale 435 races · as of November 2, 2026 203 27 51 108
• Decision Desk HQ 435 races · as of October 26, 2026 187 29 63 118
• Cook Political Report 435 races · as of October 23, 2026 186 168
• Fox News Power Rankings 435 races · as of October 13, 2026 188 170
• Sabato's Crystal Ball 435 races · as of October 20, 2026 182 164
• Inside Elections 435 races · as of October 15, 2026 187 173

The “common scale” row sorts our own race-by-race probabilities with a single set of thresholds: safe at 95% or more, likely from 80%, lean from 60%, toss-up below 60%. Split Ticket uses the same cut-offs; FiftyPlusOne moves from lean to likely at 75%. Expert ratings are shown as their authors publish them.

What the other forecasters currently say

Each one’s own published headline figure, attributed and linked. We report what they publish; none of it enters our model, and we reproduce none of their underlying data.

Prediction markets

• Kalshi 97.0% Gap vs Vote-Scope +0.8 · as of November 2, 2026 · was 97.0% on November 1, 2026
• Polymarket 94.5% Gap vs Vote-Scope +3.3 · as of November 2, 2026 · was 94.5% on November 2, 2026

Other forecasts worth checking

They publish a forecast too. Their numbers are not carried here; follow the link.

• Race to the WH
• VoteHub
• FiftyPlusOne
• Split Ticket (The Argument)
• Theo Elections
• Call the Map
• 270toWin