British Columbia Forecast
On the eve of the vote, our forecast gave Conservative Party of BC 56 of 93 seats.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party of BC | 56 | 52–60 | >99% |
| BC NDP | 35 | 31–39 | <1% |
| BC Greens | 2 | 2–2 | <1% |
| CentreBC | 0 | 0–0 | <1% |
| OneBC | 0 | 0–0 | <1% |
47 seats for a majority, out of 93 · 67 polls, 200,000 simulations
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Projected vote share
| Party | Vote | 7-day change | Chance of finishing first |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party of BC | 42.8% | +0.6 pts | >99% |
| BC NDP | 37.6% | +0.2 pts | <1% |
| BC Greens | 12.6% | +0.7 pts | <1% |
| OneBC | 2.6% | −1.3 pts | <1% |
| CentreBC | 1.9% | −0.5 pts | <1% |
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 200,000 simulations of the election.
Riding map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All ridings
All 93 ridings, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Riding | Province | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnaby South-Metrotown | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 44.0% | 1.8 pts | 66% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Kelowna Centre | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 48.6% | 1.9 pts | 63% | Hold |
| Surrey-Newton | BC | BC NDP | 49.3% | 1.9 pts | 61% | Hold |
| Burnaby North | BC | BC NDP | 47.7% | 2.2 pts | 81% | Hold |
| Mid Island-Pacific Rim | BC | BC NDP | 43.0% | 2.3 pts | 81% | Hold |
| Vernon-Lumby | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 46.9% | 2.3 pts | 79% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Ladysmith-Oceanside | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 44.5% | 2.5 pts | 77% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Port Moody-Burquitlam | BC | BC NDP | 44.6% | 2.8 pts | 89% | Hold |
| Vancouver-Yaletown | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 44.7% | 2.9 pts | 90% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Burnaby East | BC | BC NDP | 44.5% | 3.0 pts | 92% | Hold |
| Coquitlam-Maillardville | BC | BC NDP | 46.0% | 3.1 pts | 91% | Hold |
| Surrey City Centre | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 49.4% | 3.2 pts | 93% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows | BC | BC NDP | 49.5% | 3.3 pts | 94% | Hold |
| Victoria-Beacon Hill | BC | BC NDP | 41.8% | 3.8 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Surrey-Fleetwood | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 45.0% | 4.5 pts | 99% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Cowichan Valley | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 39.5% | 4.6 pts | 99% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Nanaimo-Lantzville | BC | BC NDP | 46.0% | 4.7 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Richmond-Steveston | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 49.6% | 4.9 pts | 98% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Penticton-Summerland | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 45.8% | 5.1 pts | 99% | Hold |
| West Vancouver-Sea to Sky | BC | BC Greens | 42.2% | 5.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Kootenay Central | BC | BC NDP | 38.8% | 5.3 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Burnaby Centre | BC | BC NDP | 49.7% | 5.5 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Juan de Fuca-Malahat | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 38.4% | 5.9 pts | >99% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Boundary-Similkameen | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 51.3% | 6.1 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Port Coquitlam | BC | BC NDP | 46.8% | 6.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Vancouver-Langara | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 48.8% | 7.3 pts | >99% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Langford-Highlands | BC | BC NDP | 45.8% | 7.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Coquitlam-Burke Mountain | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 50.6% | 7.5 pts | >99% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Courtenay-Comox | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 40.6% | 7.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Delta North | BC | BC NDP | 52.9% | 7.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Columbia River-Revelstoke | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 48.5% | 8.5 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Surrey-Guildford | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 48.9% | 8.6 pts | >99% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Surrey-Serpentine River | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 51.2% | 9.1 pts | >99% | Hold |
| North Vancouver-Seymour | BC | BC NDP | 47.6% | 9.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Powell River-Sunshine Coast | BC | BC NDP | 46.1% | 9.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Saanich North and the Islands | BC | BC Greens | 41.1% | 9.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| North Island | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 48.9% | 9.9 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Maple Ridge East | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 49.7% | 10.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Skeena | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 49.8% | 10.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Saanich South | BC | BC NDP | 44.1% | 10.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Kootenay-Monashee | BC | BC NDP | 47.2% | 10.1 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Nanaimo-Gabriola Island | BC | BC NDP | 47.1% | 10.9 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Surrey-Cloverdale | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 48.6% | 10.9 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Surrey-Panorama | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 52.3% | 10.9 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Kamloops Centre | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 47.0% | 11.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Vancouver-Fraserview | BC | BC NDP | 50.4% | 11.2 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Abbotsford-Mission | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 53.6% | 12.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Langley-Willowbrook | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 49.3% | 12.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Chilliwack-Cultus Lake | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 56.5% | 13.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Oak Bay-Gordon Head | BC | BC NDP | 43.0% | 13.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
Can an opposition come apart and regroup in a single month—and what is left of it on October 24?
The Conservatives start as favourites in our forecast despite a month of defections: most MLAs who left for CentreBC came back on September 22, and CentreBC and OneBC still run candidates against them. Ridings held by floor-crossers stay the least certain until nominations close.
How we got here
In 2024, John Rustad’s Conservatives came within three seats of power: 44 against the NDP’s 47. Since then, 20 of those 44 MLAs have left the caucus at least once—to sit as independents, found OneBC, join CentreBC or cross to the NDP—and several have come back.
Kerry-Lynne Findlay, elected leader on May 30, 2026, resigned on September 20 after four months of departures. Two days earlier, eight former Conservatives led by Peter Milobar had taken over CentreBC.
What just changed
SEP 22, 2026
Seven CentreBC MLAs rejoin the Conservatives — Elenore Sturko takes over CentreBC
Peter Milobar and six colleagues return to Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives, as does independent Brennan Day. Elenore Sturko stays and becomes CentreBC leader; the party keeps a slate of centrist candidates after its president, Mike Wignall, disowned the deal.
Built in: the seven are projected as Conservatives, Day too; Sturko defends Surrey-Cloverdale for CentreBC with her personal vote.
SEP 22, 2026
Eby calls a snap election for October 24
The premier cites the trade war with the United States. Voting day falls one week after the October 17 municipal elections.
Built in: the forecast now targets October 24.
SEP 22, 2026
Brent Chapman crosses to OneBC
The Surrey South MLA, Findlay’s husband, leaves the Conservatives on dissolution day.
Built in: his personal vote now follows the OneBC label in Surrey South.
SEP 21, 2026
Lorne Doerkson brings five MLAs back
The interim leader readmits John Rustad, Trevor Halford, Claire Rattée, Scott McInnis and Linda Hepner, and opens unity talks with CentreBC.
Built in: these five seats are projected under the Conservative label.
What can still change the race
- What CentreBC is worth without its MLAs: current polls predate their departure, and the next ones will settle it.
- Nominations filed with Elections BC: the model currently assumes every incumbent runs again under their current label.
- The first campaign polls that name CentreBC and OneBC in their questionnaires.