Richmond-Steveston

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.

Live results

Results for Richmond-Steveston will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 49.6%
NDP 44.8%
OTH 2.9%
CentreBC 2.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 68% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	98%
Orbit	Con	68%
50/50 blend	Con	83%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	OTH	CentreBC
Richmond-Steveston	49.6%	44.8%	2.9%	2.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+2.6	40.3%+4.5	0.4%+2.5	0.7%+2.0

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Kelly Greene · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 2.1 points, with 59.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.9 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Kelly Greene Elected	NDP	—	44.3
Michelle Mollineaux	Con	—	42.2
Jackie Lee	OTH	—	10.1
Elodie Vaudandaine	GP	—	3.4

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Richmond Centre Con, safe seat
Delta South Con, safe seat
Vancouver-Quilchena Con, safe seat
Vancouver-Langara Con, safe seat
Vancouver-Point Grey NDP, safe seat
Richmond-Bridgeport Con, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026