Vote-Scope Labs · Updated October 23, 2026

Orbit Live experiment

British Columbia 2026

Here is what Orbit, our experimental model, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.

Orbit’s favourite

Con

83% chance of finishing first

Seats won

56Harfang 56 8 in 10 chance between 42 and 68

Chance of a majority (47)

80%Harfang > 99% Con

Same favourite as Harfang des neiges

> 99% of ridings

Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?

They agree

Orbit (quantum)

Harfang (classical)

50/50 blend

Majority: 47

What if we listened to both engines at once?

50/50 blend: Con 56 · Chance of a majority90%

The blend gives each riding the average of the chances announced by Orbit and by our reference forecast, then counts the favourites. In our Quebec replays (2018 and 2022, the day before the vote), the blend always beat the reference forecast alone: in 2018 the error drops from 6.5 to 4.5 seats, and the announced probabilities become far more reliable. The 50/50 split is a choice of principle, not a setting tuned on those two elections. Its first real blind test came in Quebec on October 5: the blend picked the right winner in 114 of 127 ridings, against 110 for the reference forecast and 113 for Orbit, and its probabilities were the best calibrated of the three. One election is not enough to conclude: British Columbia is its second test.

All 93 ridings: Harfang des neiges, Orbit and the blend

For each riding, the favourite and its chance of winning according to our main forecast (Harfang des neiges), according to Orbit, and according to the 50/50 blend, which averages the two chances. The two models pick the same favourite in 93 of 93 ridings. No disagreements.

Disagreements only

Riding	Harfang des neiges	Orbit	50/50 blend
Abbotsford South	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
Abbotsford West	Con > 99%	Con 98%	Con 99%
Abbotsford-Mission	Con > 99%	Con 89%	Con 95%
Boundary-Similkameen	Con > 99%	Con 84%	Con 92%
Bulkley Valley-Stikine	Con > 99%	Con 93%	Con 96%
Burnaby Centre	NDP > 99%	NDP 69%	NDP 84%
Burnaby East	NDP 92%	NDP 60%	NDP 76%
Burnaby North	NDP 81%	NDP 57%	NDP 69%
Burnaby South-Metrotown	Con 66%	Con 50%	Con 58%
Burnaby-New Westminster	NDP > 99%	NDP 92%	NDP 96%
Cariboo-Chilcotin	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
Chilliwack North	Con > 99%	Con 95%	Con 98%
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake	Con > 99%	Con 87%	Con 94%
Columbia River-Revelstoke	Con > 99%	Con 80%	Con 90%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain	Con > 99%	Con 70%	Con 85%
Coquitlam-Maillardville	NDP 91%	NDP 64%	NDP 77%
Courtenay-Comox	Con > 99%	Con 68%	Con 84%
Cowichan Valley	Con 99%	Con 61%	Con 80%
Delta North	NDP > 99%	NDP 64%	NDP 82%
Delta South	Con > 99%	Con 93%	Con 96%
Esquimalt-Colwood	NDP > 99%	NDP 85%	NDP 92%
Fraser-Nicola	Con > 99%	Con 97%	Con 98%
Juan de Fuca-Malahat	Con > 99%	Con 63%	Con 81%
Kamloops Centre	Con > 99%	Con 87%	Con 94%
Kamloops-North Thompson	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
Kelowna Centre	Con 63%	Con 72%	Con 68%
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream	Con > 99%	Con 97%	Con 99%
Kelowna-Mission	Con > 99%	Con 98%	Con 99%
Kootenay Central	NDP > 99%	NDP 50%	NDP 75%
Kootenay-Monashee	NDP > 99%	NDP 65%	NDP 82%
Kootenay-Rockies	Con > 99%	Con 98%	Con > 99%
Ladysmith-Oceanside	Con 77%	Con 54%	Con 65%
Langford-Highlands	NDP > 99%	NDP 68%	NDP 84%
Langley-Abbotsford	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
Langley-Walnut Grove	Con > 99%	Con 85%	Con 92%
Langley-Willowbrook	Con > 99%	Con 83%	Con 92%
Maple Ridge East	Con > 99%	Con 75%	Con 88%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows	NDP 94%	NDP 54%	NDP 74%
Mid Island-Pacific Rim	NDP 81%	NDP 54%	NDP 68%
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island	NDP > 99%	NDP 77%	NDP 89%
Nanaimo-Lantzville	NDP 99%	NDP 62%	NDP 80%
Nechako Lakes	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
New Westminster-Coquitlam	NDP > 99%	NDP 96%	NDP 98%
North Coast-Haida Gwaii	NDP > 99%	NDP 92%	NDP 96%
North Island	Con > 99%	Con 77%	Con 88%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale	NDP > 99%	NDP 96%	NDP 98%
North Vancouver-Seymour	NDP > 99%	NDP 78%	NDP 89%
Oak Bay-Gordon Head	NDP > 99%	NDP 78%	NDP 89%
Peace River North	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
Peace River South	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
Penticton-Summerland	Con > 99%	Con 74%	Con 87%
Port Coquitlam	NDP > 99%	NDP 72%	NDP 86%
Port Moody-Burquitlam	NDP 89%	NDP 61%	NDP 75%
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	NDP > 99%	NDP 68%	NDP 84%
Prince George-Mackenzie	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
Prince George-North Cariboo	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
Prince George-Valemount	Con > 99%	Con 97%	Con 99%
Richmond Centre	Con > 99%	Con 97%	Con 99%
Richmond-Bridgeport	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
Richmond-Queensborough	Con > 99%	Con 88%	Con 94%
Richmond-Steveston	Con 98%	Con 68%	Con 83%
Saanich North and the Islands	GP > 99%	GP 78%	GP 89%
Saanich South	NDP > 99%	NDP 75%	NDP 88%
Salmon Arm-Shuswap	Con > 99%	Con 99%	Con > 99%
Skeena	Con > 99%	Con 84%	Con 92%
Surrey City Centre	Con 93%	Con 70%	Con 81%
Surrey North	Con > 99%	Con 89%	Con 95%
Surrey South	Con > 99%	Con 98%	Con 99%
Surrey-Cloverdale	Con > 99%	Con 81%	Con 90%
Surrey-Fleetwood	Con 99%	Con 64%	Con 81%
Surrey-Guildford	Con > 99%	Con 74%	Con 87%
Surrey-Newton	NDP 61%	NDP 51%	NDP 56%
Surrey-Panorama	Con > 99%	Con 78%	Con 89%
Surrey-Serpentine River	Con > 99%	Con 79%	Con 90%
Surrey-White Rock	Con > 99%	Con 89%	Con 94%
Vancouver-Fraserview	NDP > 99%	NDP 84%	NDP 92%
Vancouver-Hastings	NDP > 99%	NDP > 99%	NDP > 99%
Vancouver-Kensington	NDP > 99%	NDP 96%	NDP 98%
Vancouver-Langara	Con > 99%	Con 68%	Con 84%
Vancouver-Little Mountain	NDP > 99%	NDP 97%	NDP 99%
Vancouver-Point Grey	NDP > 99%	NDP 88%	NDP 94%
Vancouver-Quilchena	Con > 99%	Con 95%	Con 98%
Vancouver-Renfrew	NDP > 99%	NDP 98%	NDP 99%
Vancouver-South Granville	NDP > 99%	NDP > 99%	NDP > 99%
Vancouver-Strathcona	NDP > 99%	NDP > 99%	NDP > 99%
Vancouver-West End	NDP > 99%	NDP > 99%	NDP > 99%
Vancouver-Yaletown	Con 90%	Con 55%	Con 73%
Vernon-Lumby	Con 79%	Con 67%	Con 73%
Victoria-Beacon Hill	NDP 99%	NDP 52%	NDP 75%
Victoria-Swan Lake	NDP > 99%	NDP 94%	NDP 97%
West Kelowna-Peachland	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
West Vancouver-Capilano	Con > 99%	Con > 99%	Con > 99%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky	GP > 99%	GP 75%	GP 88%

Orbit and Harfang des neiges, figures as of October 23, 2026

Party by party

Con = Harfang

Vote: 44.8%
Vote Harfang: 42.8%
Chance of a majority: 80%

NDP = Harfang

Vote: 38.8%
Vote Harfang: 37.6%
Chance of a majority: 14%

GP = Harfang

Vote: 11.3%
Vote Harfang: 12.6%
Chance of a majority: < 1%

The vote, with its margin of uncertainty

The solid bar is Orbit’s projected vote; the thin line, an 8-in-10 range; the black tick, our reference forecast.

Con 44.8%
NDP 38.8%
GP 11.3%
OneBC 2.3%
OTH 1.5%
CentreBC 1.4%

Where the two engines disagree

Both engines name the same favourite everywhere.

Orbit’s instruments

Voters who switched sides since the last election

8.6 at least, in points of the electorate

Average gap between pollsters

± 2.4 points, around the most likely state

Cone of possibilities until election day

± 0.4 points of maximum movement for a party at 30%

Days to election

1 October 24, 2026

The test of the past

We replayed past elections using only the polls known the day before the vote. Here is the average gap, per party, between projected seats won and the real results — the same measure as our track record. Lower is better.

Election	Orbit gap	Harfang gap	Ridings called right (Orbit)
British Columbia 2024	1.3	not replayed	86%

How Orbit works, in three ideas

Opinion travels on a sphere

A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.

Polls are measurements

As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.

Qubits instead of dice

Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.

Read the full explanation