Vancouver-South Granville

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Vancouver-South Granville will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 56.7%
Con 25.4%
GP 14.9%
CentreBC 1.7%
OneBC 1.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	> 99%
50/50 blend	NDP	> 99%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP	CentreBC
Vancouver-South Granville	56.7%	25.4%	14.9%	1.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+16.4	47.0%−21.6	10.3%+4.6	0.7%+1.0

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Brenda Bailey · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 39.4 points, with 63.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 31.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Brenda Bailey Elected	NDP	—	64.3
Aron Lageri	Con	—	25.0
Adam Hawk	GP	—	10.7

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Vancouver-West End NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Yaletown Con, toss-up
Vancouver-Quilchena Con, safe seat
Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Langara Con, safe seat
Vancouver-Strathcona NDP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026