Vancouver-Strathcona
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Vancouver-Strathcona will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | NDP | > 99% |
| Orbit | NDP | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | NDP | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| NDP | Con | GP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver-Strathcona | 61.7% | 19.0% | 18.2% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 40.3%+21.4 | 47.0%−28.0 | 10.3%+8.0 | 0.4%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2024)
The NDP won by 50.5 points, with 51.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 42.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joan Phillip Elected | NDP | — | 67.6 |
| Scott Muller | Con | — | 17.1 |
| Simon de Weerdt | GP | — | 13.6 |
| Kimball Cariou | OTH | — | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vancouver-Yaletown Con, toss-up
- Vancouver-Hastings NDP, safe seat
- Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP, safe seat
- Vancouver-Kensington NDP, safe seat
- North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP, safe seat
- Vancouver-Renfrew NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated