North Vancouver-Lonsdale

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for North Vancouver-Lonsdale will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 58.2%
Con 37.6%
GP 4.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 96% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	96%
50/50 blend	NDP	98%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP
North Vancouver-Lonsdale	58.2%	37.6%	4.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+17.9	47.0%−9.5	10.3%−6.0

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Bowinn Ma · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 29.8 points, with 58.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 20.6 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Bowinn Ma Elected	NDP	—	64.9
David Splett	Con	—	35.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Vancouver-Strathcona NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Yaletown Con, toss-up
Vancouver-West End NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Hastings NDP, safe seat
West Vancouver-Capilano Con, safe seat
Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026