Vancouver-Yaletown

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.

Live results

Results for Vancouver-Yaletown will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 44.7%
NDP 42.0%
GP 11.0%
CentreBC 2.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 55% chance (90% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	90%
Orbit	Con	55%
50/50 blend	Con	73%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP	CentreBC
Vancouver-Yaletown	44.7%	42.0%	11.0%	2.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%−2.3	40.3%+1.8	10.3%+0.7	0.7%+1.6

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Terry Yung · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 6.4 points, with 50.1% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.9 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Terry Yung Elected	NDP	—	49.8
Melissa De Genova	Con	—	43.4
Dana-Lyn Mackenzie	GP	—	6.9

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Vancouver-Strathcona NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-West End NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-South Granville NDP, safe seat
North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Kensington NDP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026