Surrey-Newton

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a 61% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.

Live results

Results for Surrey-Newton will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 49.3%
Con 48.7%
CentreBC 2.0%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 51% chance (61% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	61%
Orbit	NDP	51%
50/50 blend	NDP	56%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	CentreBC
Surrey-Newton	49.3%	48.7%	2.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+9.1	47.0%+1.6	0.7%+1.3

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Jessie Sunner · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 8.2 points, with 50.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 1.9 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Jessie Sunner Elected	NDP	—	51.2
Tegjot Bal	Con	—	43.0
Amrit Birring Joginder Singh Randhawa Japreet Lehal	OTH	—	5.8

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Surrey-Panorama Con, safe seat
Surrey-Fleetwood Con, toss-up
Surrey-Serpentine River Con, safe seat
Surrey City Centre Con, toss-up
Surrey North Con, safe seat
Surrey South Con, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026