Surrey City Centre

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 82%.

Live results

Results for Surrey City Centre will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 49.4%
NDP 46.4%
OneBC 2.3%
CentreBC 1.9%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 70% chance (93% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	93%
Orbit	Con	70%
50/50 blend	Con	81%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	OneBC	CentreBC
Surrey City Centre	49.4%	46.4%	2.3%	1.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+2.4	40.3%+6.1	1.3%+1.0	0.7%+1.2

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Amna Shah · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 1.6 points, with 44.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.2 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Amna Shah Elected	NDP	—	46.7
Zeeshan Wahla	Con	—	45.1
Colin Boyd	GP	—	6.1
Ryan Abbott Saeed Naguib	OTH	—	2.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Surrey North Con, safe seat
Surrey-Fleetwood Con, toss-up
Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP, toss-up
Surrey-Guildford Con, safe seat
Surrey-Newton NDP, toss-up
Surrey-Serpentine River Con, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026