Surrey-Guildford
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Results for Surrey-Guildford will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 74% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 74% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 87% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surrey-Guildford | 48.9% | 40.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+1.8 | 40.3% | 10.3%−1.6 | 1.3%+0.9 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Garry Begg · NDP
Previous election (2024)
The NDP won by 0.1 points, with 50.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garry Begg Elected | NDP | — | 46.9 |
| Honveer Singh Randhawa | Con | — | 46.8 |
| Manjeet Singh Sahota | GP | — | 4.3 |
| Kabir Qurban | OTH | — | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Surrey-Fleetwood Con, toss-up
- Surrey-Serpentine River Con, safe seat
- Port Coquitlam NDP, competitive
- Surrey City Centre Con, toss-up
- Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP, toss-up
- Surrey-Newton NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated