Surrey-Fleetwood

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 62%.

Live results

Results for Surrey-Fleetwood will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 45.0%
NDP 40.6%
GP 10.5%
OneBC 2.1%
CentreBC 1.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 64% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	99%
Orbit	Con	64%
50/50 blend	Con	81%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP	OneBC
Surrey-Fleetwood	45.0%	40.6%	10.5%	2.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%−2.0	40.3%+0.3	10.3%+0.3	1.3%+0.8

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Jagrup Brar · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 3.7 points, with 54.1% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.5 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Jagrup Brar Elected	NDP	—	48.6
Avtar Gill	Con	—	44.9
Tim Binnema	GP	—	6.5

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Surrey-Serpentine River Con, safe seat
Surrey-Guildford Con, safe seat
Surrey City Centre Con, toss-up
Surrey-Newton NDP, toss-up
Surrey-Panorama Con, safe seat
Surrey North Con, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026