Surrey-Serpentine River
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Results for Surrey-Serpentine River will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 79% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 79% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 90% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | OneBC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surrey-Serpentine River | 51.2% | 42.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+4.1 | 40.3%+1.8 | 1.3%+1.0 | 0.4%+1.8 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Linda Hepner · Con
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.2 points, with 54.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linda Hepner Elected | Con | — | 49.7 |
| Baltej Singh Dhillon | NDP | — | 47.5 |
| Jim McMurtry | OTH | — | 2.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Surrey-Fleetwood Con, toss-up
- Surrey-Guildford Con, safe seat
- Surrey-Newton NDP, toss-up
- Surrey-Panorama Con, safe seat
- Surrey City Centre Con, toss-up
- Surrey South Con, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated