Surrey South

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Surrey South will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 55.2%
NDP 32.0%
GP 5.3%
CentreBC 4.3%
OneBC 2.5%
OTH 0.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	> 99%
Orbit	Con	98%
50/50 blend	Con	99%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP	CentreBC
Surrey South	55.2%	32.0%	5.3%	4.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+8.2	40.3%−8.3	10.3%−5.0	0.7%+3.6

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Brent Chapman · OneBC

Elected as Con; changed party. 43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The Conservatives won by 17.7 points, with 56.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 23.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Brent Chapman Elected	Con	—	58.8
Haroon Ghaffar	NDP	—	41.2

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Surrey-Panorama Con, safe seat
Surrey-Serpentine River Con, safe seat
Surrey-White Rock Con, safe seat
Surrey-Newton NDP, toss-up
Surrey-Fleetwood Con, toss-up
Surrey-Cloverdale Con, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026