Surrey-White Rock

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Surrey-White Rock will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 52.4%
NDP 37.3%
GP 4.1%
OneBC 2.3%
CentreBC 2.2%
OTH 1.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 89% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	> 99%
Orbit	Con	89%
50/50 blend	Con	94%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP	OneBC
Surrey-White Rock	52.4%	37.3%	4.1%	2.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+5.3	40.3%−3.0	10.3%−6.2	1.3%+1.1

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Trevor Halford · Con

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The Conservatives won by 7.0 points, with 61.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 15.1 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Trevor Halford Elected	Con	—	52.3
Darryl Walker	NDP	—	45.3
Damyn Tassie	OTH	—	2.4

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Surrey South Con, safe seat
Surrey-Panorama Con, safe seat
Surrey-Newton NDP, toss-up
Surrey-Serpentine River Con, safe seat
Surrey-Fleetwood Con, toss-up
Delta North NDP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026