Surrey-Panorama

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Surrey-Panorama will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 52.3%
NDP 41.4%
GP 4.2%
CentreBC 2.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 78% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	> 99%
Orbit	Con	78%
50/50 blend	Con	89%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP	CentreBC
Surrey-Panorama	52.3%	41.4%	4.2%	2.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+5.2	40.3%+1.1	10.3%−6.1	0.7%+1.4

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Bryan Tepper · Con

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The Conservatives won by 1.5 points, with 53.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 10.9 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Bryan Tepper Elected	Con	—	49.6
Jinny Sims	NDP	—	48.1
Paramjit Rai	OTH	—	2.3

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Surrey-Newton NDP, toss-up
Surrey-Serpentine River Con, safe seat
Surrey South Con, safe seat
Surrey-Fleetwood Con, toss-up
Surrey-White Rock Con, safe seat
Surrey City Centre Con, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026