Surrey-Cloverdale
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Surrey-Cloverdale will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 81% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 81% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 90% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surrey-Cloverdale | 48.6% | 37.7% | 9.5% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+1.5 | 40.3%−2.6 | 10.3%−0.8 | 1.3%+0.9 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Elenore Sturko · CentreBC
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.8 points, with 55.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 10.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elenore Sturko Elected | Con | — | 48.3 |
| Mike Starchuk | NDP | — | 45.6 |
| Pat McCutcheon | GP | — | 5.4 |
| Judy Meilleur | OTH | — | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Langley-Willowbrook Con, safe seat
- Surrey-Serpentine River Con, safe seat
- Surrey-Guildford Con, safe seat
- Surrey South Con, safe seat
- Surrey-Fleetwood Con, toss-up
- Langley-Walnut Grove Con, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated