Surrey North
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Surrey North will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 89% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 89% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surrey North | 50.8% | 35.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+3.8 | 40.3%−4.9 | 10.3%−2.0 | 1.3%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Mandeep Dhaliwal · Con
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.4 points, with 49.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 15.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mandeep Dhaliwal Elected | Con | — | 50.7 |
| Rachna Singh | NDP | — | 43.3 |
| Sim Sandhu | GP | — | 4.2 |
| Kiran Hundal Hobby Nijjar | OTH | — | 1.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Surrey City Centre Con, toss-up
- New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP, safe seat
- Surrey-Newton NDP, toss-up
- Burnaby-New Westminster NDP, safe seat
- Delta North NDP, safe seat
- Surrey-Fleetwood Con, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated