Vancouver-Renfrew

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Vancouver-Renfrew will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 56.0%
Con 32.1%
GP 10.3%
CentreBC 1.5%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	98%
50/50 blend	NDP	99%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP	CentreBC
Vancouver-Renfrew	56.0%	32.1%	10.3%	1.5%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+15.8	47.0%−14.9	10.3%	0.7%+0.8

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Adrian Dix · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 32.6 points, with 48.2% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 23.9 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Adrian Dix Elected	NDP	—	63.2
Tom Ikonomou	Con	—	30.7
Lawrence Taylor	GP	—	6.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Vancouver-Fraserview NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Kensington NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Hastings NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Strathcona NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP, safe seat
Burnaby North NDP, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026