Vancouver-Fraserview

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Vancouver-Fraserview will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 50.4%
Con 39.1%
GP 10.5%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 84% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	84%
50/50 blend	NDP	92%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP
Vancouver-Fraserview	50.4%	39.1%	10.5%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+10.1	47.0%−7.9	10.3%+0.2

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

George Chow · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 20.6 points, with 52.4% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 11.2 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
George Chow Elected	NDP	—	57.2
Jag S. Sanghera	Con	—	36.6
Francoise Raunet	GP	—	6.2

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Vancouver-Kensington NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Renfrew NDP, safe seat
Richmond-Queensborough Con, safe seat
Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP, safe seat
Vancouver-Langara Con, safe seat
Vancouver-Hastings NDP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026